In recent years, Mongolia has been making strides in its international trade relations, with both imports and exports playing a crucial role in the country’s economic growth. Between January and September 2024, Mongolia registered a foreign trade turnover of $20.4 billion, up 13% year‑on‑year, fueled largely by growing exports ($11.8 billion) exceeding imports ($ 8.6 billion) for a positive trade balance, as per Mongolia shipment data. Mongolia is the 85th biggest exporter of goods and 109th largest importer in the world, as per the Global Trade Data and Asia Trade Data.

Over the full year 2024, goods exports climbed to about $15.8 billion (+3.9%), while the trade surplus expanded to nearly $5.9 billion, as per Mongolia export data. According to Mongolia import data and Mongolia customs data, Mongolia imports reached a total value of $11.60 billion in 2024, a 25% increase from the previous year. The Mongolia Import Data and Mongolia Export Data for the years 2024–2025 provide valuable insights into the trends and patterns shaping Mongolia’s trade landscape.

In early 2025, the trade picture shifted:

• March 2025: Exports plunged 31.3% YoY to $1.008 billion; imports rose to $836.7 million (up 2.1%); surplus narrowed to $171.7 million. 
• January–March 2025: Trade surplus stood at $465.1 million (down from $1.236 billion). 

The outlook: Mongolia remains structurally export‑oriented, but late‑2024 and early‑2025 disruptions, especially in mineral shipments, will tighten margins.

Mongolia Export Highlights – What Mongolia Sells to the World

1. Mineral Products – Mongolia’s Core Export Engine

Minerals dominate, accounting for roughly 87–90% of total exports as per Mongolia customs data, including:

• Coal (bituminous, coking, lignite):
  • 2023: $8.76 billion; H1 2024: $3.76 billion.
  • Coal export value hit $10.3 billion (Jan–Sep 2024).
  • Shipment volumes: 83.7 Mt in 2024, earning $8.7 billion (~55% of all exports).
  • Infrastructure boost: New rail link (May 2025) aims to add 30 Mt/year capacity, targeting 100 Mt exports in 2025; long-term ambition is 165 Mt.
• Other ores (copper, iron, zinc, molybdenum, precious metals):
  • Jan–Sep 2024: 9.3 Mt, $4.3 billion (~27% of exports).
  • Copper ores & concentrates: $2.63 billion in 2023; H1 2024: $1.15 billion.
  • Gold & precious stones: $679 million (5.8%) in Jan‑Sep 2024; 2023 total  $738 million.
  • Emerging interest in uranium and rare earth minerals, boosted by mining cadastre expansion.

2. Non-Minerals: Steady but Secondary

• Textiles & cashmere: $356 million (3.0%) Jan–Sep 2024; cashmere especially holds strong in Italy (79%) and China (99% washed goat hair).
• Meat & livestock: Beef (27,300 t) and goat meat (4,700 t) exported through Sep 2024, though down 3–7%.

Mongolia Import Landscape – What Mongolia Buys

1. By Value & Category

• Jan–Nov 2024: Imports totaled $10.57 billion (+26%).
• Main imports include:
  • Machinery & mechanical appliances: $2.25 billion (21.3%)
  • Mineral products (refined petroleum): $2.20 billion (20.8%; incl. $1.94 b of petroleum).
  • Road vehicles & parts: $2.26 billion (21.4%)
• March 2025 data: Imports reached $836.7 million, averaging USD 327.9 million/month over time.

2. Import Partners: China, Russia, Japan Lead

Import origins in 2024:

• China: 58% of import value (source of machinery, vehicles, petroleum).
• Russia: ~24% (mostly petroleum & heavy equipment).
• Japan: 6.8% (significant share in automobiles).
• South Korea, USA, Germany: Combined 10%. 

Trade Balance Dynamics

• Trade surplus soared in 2023: $5.93 billion, reflecting robust mineral exports.
• Early 2025: Surplus narrowed sharply:
  • March 2025: Surplus at $171.7 million (from $648.7 m in March 2024).
  • January–March 2025: Surplus of $465.1 million (down from $1.236 billion).

This makes Mongolia vulnerable to external shocks in mineral demand/prices, especially when key markets constrict.

Trade Infrastructure & Policy – Bridging the Gaps

1. Trade Agreements & Economic Policy

• WTO membership: Applies MFN tariffs averaging 5%.
• New Recovery Policy (2021 onward): Focus on infrastructure, economic diversification, and mineral resource value-additions.
• Third‑neighbor diplomacy:
  • India is exploring coking coal and copper deals via Vladivostok/Vlad routes.
  • UK‑Mongolia air corridor planned for rare earth exports.
• BRI/EAEU: Mongolia actively aligns with the China–Russia corridor and negotiates EAEU trade integration.

Mongolia Trade Trends & Forecasts

Exports

• Coal exports:
  • 2024: 84 Mt earning $8.7 billion.
  • 2025 goal: 100 Mt; with rail link, capacity expansion to 165 Mt by 2030.
• Copper & ore output: Oyu Tolgoi ramp‑up yields +15–20% volume increases.
• Gold & precious metals: Remain a stable $700–800 million/year.
• Textile/cashmere: Cashmere exports + modest growth, leveraging EU demand (Italy, China).
• Food/livestock: Minor but steady, with expansion possible in Central Asia (e.g., Uzbekistan).

Imports

• Petroleum/products: Around $2 billion/year; pipeline will reduce costs and import volatility.
• Machinery & vehicles: Continued industrialization requires sustained vehicle and equipment imports.
• Diversification of suppliers: Rising share from Japan, South Korea, EU to reduce China/Russia dependency.

What It Means for Businesses

Exporters

• Mineral firms: Secure rail transport, lock in long-term MoUs with China, and explore shipment to India via Russia.
• Value-added players: Cashmere producers should focus on EU/Italy; rare earth miners should prep for UK and Western exports.
• Agro-livestock exporters: Explore Central Asian pathways (e.g., Uzbekistan deals); ensure compliance is solid.

Importers

• Fuel importers: Monitor pipeline completion (post‑2025) and diversify supply from a mix of China and Russia.
• Machinery/vehicle dealers: Expect steady import growth; stay agile amid trade agreements and policy shifts.

Strategic Risks & Considerations

1. China dependency: 90% of Mongolian exports depend on one market; susceptibility to Chinese demand downturns.
2. Price/volume volatility: Exports dropped 31% YoY in March 2025—miners and traders must hedge effectively. 
3. Low diversification: Non-mineral sectors (textile, agro) are small; EU/UK integration via trade deals is underutilized.
4. Infrastructure gaps: New rail/pipeline projects are promising but still under construction; the full impact arrives gradually.
5. Geopolitical exposure: BRI/EAEU ties strengthen China–Russia links; third-neighbor expansion (India, UK, US) is ongoing but uneven.

Key Mongolia Import-Export Data Timeline

• Jan–Sep 2024: $11.8 billionn exports / $8.6 bn imports; minerals 87% of exports.
• Full 2024: $15.8 billion exports (+3.9%), $11.60 billion imports, surplus of $5.9 billion.
• Mar 2025: Exports $1.008 billion (–31%), imports $836.7 million (+2%), surplus $171.7 million.
• H1 2024 coal export: 83.7 Mt, $8.7 billion; aiming 100 Mt in 2025.

Conclusion & Final Take: Mongolia Trade Outlook 2025

In conclusion, Mongolia Import Data and Mongolia Export Data for 2024–2025 offer a comprehensive view of Mongolia’s trade dynamics, highlighting the country’s strengths, challenges, and opportunities in the global marketplace. Mongolia in 2024–2025 stands as a minerals-powered exporter, largely dependent on coal and ore shipments to China, but transforming:

• Infrastructure projects (rail, pipeline) are unlocking export capacity and reducing import vulnerability.
• Trade diplomacy extends beyond China; deals with India, UK, EU, and EAEU signal broader horizons.
• Trade balance remains positive yet volatile—surpluses hinge on mineral volume/prices.
• The next frontier lies in boosting value-added production: cashmere, rare earths, refined fuels, and agro-products for new markets.

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